Update #1 (April 1st): The last two weeks in Upland according to some custom statistics. Please read below the update for how each statistic works.
RobCovIndex (Detroit): 42. Previously: 69 (though I believe I underestimated this number). RobCov has 87 properties minted below my previously lowest UPX listing (5850 UPX). That means that the UPX supply of low-margin properties is declining, so the floor should steadily rise. My property was sold.
Upland Bel-Air Unminted Property Index: 566. Previously: 679. A 16% decline. Roughly 10 weeks (mid-June) until Bel-Air is completely at this rate.
Upland Jefferson Chalmers Unminted FSA Index: Previously, FSA players could get a huge discount on the secondary market floor by minting. Jefferson Chalmers is now minted out. We need a new statistic.
Detroit premium (vs. LA):
UPX floor for Standard Collections: 139% (Springwells) vs. 98% (Venice, LA)
UPX floor for Limited Collections: 149% (Jefferson Chalmers) vs. 105% (Brentwood, LA)
UPX floor for Exclusive Collections: 174% (Downtown) vs. 109% (Bel-Air, LA)
UPX floor for Rare Collections: 884% (Chicago Blvd) vs. 184% (Wilshire Blvd, LA)
The difference is 40–65% for Standard to Exclusive collections and an insane 700% for Rare collections. LA needs to mint out before it has any hope of closing this gap.
Customs stats that tell the story of Upland’s economy:
Unusual statistics can shed light on what is really happening beneath the surface in the Upland Property Market. Here are three of them that help me think through the future of Upland LA, the health of FSA minting in Detroit, and the near-term pressures on the secondary market in Detroit. I will update these statistics roughly once a week.
RobCov Index in Detroit (March 14): 69. For those who don’t know, RobCov is the most prolific property seller in Upland by far. His strategy is to mark up his properties for 8% on mint, so he is one of a number of low-margin, high-volume Upland sellers. When the market works through the inventory of low-margin sellers like RobCov, the prices will start to rise. As of Monday, March 14, Rob Cov has 69 properties for sale under my lowest-priced property in Detroit (5850 UPX). I am curious to see how low the RobCov Index will go before mine sells.
Upland Bel-Air Unminted Property Index (March 14): 679. Belair is an exclusive collection in LA that is not yet minted out. At the moment, the lowest available mint price in Bel-Air is 542k with 679 properties to go. These properties are selling at about 5 a day, so Bel-Air should be minted out in July.
Upland Jefferson Chalmers Unminted FSA Index (March 14): 59.8. Jefferson Park is a Limited collection in Detroit. Non-FSA minted out immediately after collections were announced. There are now FSA properties starting at 11,340 UPX on Lakewood Ave. The UPX floor for the secondary market in Jefferson Chalmers is 18950. Given a collection multiplier of 1.68x, one would expect FSA players willing to mint anything up to 18950 or more. Instead, the lowest FSA mint price is only 58.9% of the Jefferson Chalmers floor.
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